Let's just go with laziness. Something that we all seem to have problems with. It is also something we will not be seeing on the field this weekend during the NFL Wild Card playoff round (how about that god awful transition).
I enjoy to do a little gambling from time to time, and while I absolutely do not consider myself an expert, I do like to believe that I have a reasonable idea of what I am doing. Then again when it comes to gambling, no one really knows what they are doing.
If there is one thing we learn every year from Wild Card Weekend, it is that all 4 favorites rarely cover, let alone win and advance. We always seem to see an upset or two. Last year alone, 3 of the 4 winners were road teams, while the lone home winner, Seattle at +10, was the biggest underdog of all. We also know that how a team finishes the season does matter when it comes to making a playoff run. Teams like the 2007 Giants and 2010 Packers ended their seasons on winning streaks in order to get a playoff birth, and both came away winning the Super Bowl.
Anyways, here are my picks for this weekend, which will inevitably be wrong and cost me money that I do not have.
Saturday 1/7
Bengals +4 @ Texans
I really think the Bengals win this game outright. It took an amazing 2 minute drill by T.J. Yates and co. to beat Cincy during the regular season, and I honestly can't see the Bengals letting that happen again. Expect Arian Foster and Ben Tate to run the ball like crazy, but this Bengals defense is good enough to keep them in check. I can't trust Yates nearly as much as I can Andy Dalton, who has shown to be a very promising young quarterback in this league. Bengals find a way to pull this one out in a close one, and those taking the Moneyline bet are very happy. Bengals 20 Texans 17
Lions +10.5 @ Saints
I think this game is incredibly interesting. The Saints come in as the hottest team in Football, but the Matthew Stafford led Lions are no joke offensively. I see a lot of points scored (even though I love the under of 59.5 points, which is the highest O/U in the history of the Wild Card round) and both Quarterbacks will play well. The Saints will absolutely win this game in my opinion, but I have a hard time seeing this Lions team going down without a fight. Even if this game is out of hand, expect Detroit to throw the rock until the clock reads 0:00. I take the crazy amount of points, but pick the Saints to win straight up. Saints 30 Lions 24
Sunday 1/8
Falcons @ Giants -3
A classic game involving a team coming off a huge win to get into the playoffs. The Giants had to fight and claw to get themselves into this Wild Card round, and I think that gives them a great advantage. The home field factor will be difficult for Matt Ryan and his offense, especially outdoors in the New York (very un-January like) weather. Expect Eli to have another big day throwing the football and the Giants win this one and win it easily. Giants 27 Falcons 17
Steelers -8.5 @ Broncos
This one hurts. I love my Broncos, I love Tim Tebow, I love the home field advantage in Denver, but I just cannot see how this game is won by Denver. The key to this game for Denver is 3rd and shorts. They have to limit the 3rd and 7s,8s,9,s etc. to give #15 a chance to somehow keep this thing close. Big Ben is suffering with a high ankle sprain, making him much easier for Von Miller, Elvis Dumervil and co. to put a hurting on the Miami Ohio grad. At the end of the day though, Pittsburgh has been here before, Ben has played hurt and played well when hurt, and the Denver Broncos are backing into the playoffs after losing their last 3. I think Tebow plays better than most think, but it may come after the game has already been decided. Pittsburgh takes this game and cover the spread, but barely. Steelers 20 Broncos 10
If anything, do the exact opposite of these picks and you will be sure to win some money! Good luck to everyone and enjoy the football!
-John
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